Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Saints @ Falcons SHTU @ BGSU

SIENA HEIGHTS

SAINTSSHTU

0-0  |  Road

66
FINAL
Mon, Dec 22 • 2:00 PM ET
Stroh Center
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

9-3  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
100%
📊
FALCONS
0%
SAINTS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Bowling Green)
SaintsSHTU (-3.5) 0 FalconsBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

0.3%

Falcons Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BGSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

SHTU By 1-7 points

0.2%

SHTU By 8-14 points

0.0%

BGSU By 1-7 points

1.7%

BGSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
54
SIENA HEIGHTS
82
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
61
SIENA HEIGHTS
88
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Falcons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (-21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2025 SHTU @ BGSU 66 - 125
Dec 22, 2023 SHTU @ BGSU 58 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +167.4% more
Bowling Green: 4.6 vs Siena Heights: 1.7
Assists (L5) +84.9% more
Bowling Green: 17.3 vs Siena Heights: 9.3
Rebounding (L5) +36.4% more
Bowling Green: 37.3 vs Siena Heights: 27.3
Steals (L5) +26.0% more
Bowling Green: 10.3 vs Siena Heights: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHTU Score 54.0 66
BGSU Score 82.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 24.3 37.0 / 36.0
Assists 17.3 / 9.3 27.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.6 / 1.7 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 36.4 59.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 62.8 78.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 27.3 43.0 / 26.0
Steals 10.3 / 8.2 21.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 16.9 9.0 / 30.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHTU
--
BGSU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHTU
--
BGSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SHTU
--
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
SHTU
BGSU
SHTU
ML
66% 21-11
100% 1-0
56% 18-14
100% 1-0
ATS
72% 23-9
100% 1-0
56% 18-14
100% 1-0
TTL
53% 17-15
0% 0-1
100% 32-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Lions Edge Saints in Overtime Thriller: Winners and Losers from …
si 3 weeks, 4 days ago
From Critic to Teammate: Ex-Ole Miss Lineman Zxavian Harris Expe…
al 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Falcons' Future Outlook Dims in ESPN Rankings as QB Woes Persist
albanyherald 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Drew Brees' Hall of Fame Journey: A Testament to Grit and Determ…
abcnews 2 months ago
Kevin Stefanski's Atlanta Falcons Challenge: A Career Forged in …
theathleticuk 2 months, 1 week ago