ST. LOUIS
BLUESSTL
14-15-8 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
19-13-3 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jordan Binnington
#50 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington | None-None | 4.00 | 0.765 | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 1.00 | 0.958 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.00
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.765
Save %
Ldr 0.958
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUES
100%
LIGHTNING
0%
BLUES
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
STL By 1 goal
0.9%
STL By 2-3 goals
0.3%
TB By 1 goal
6.6%
TB By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
1
ST. LOUIS
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
St. Louis
2
ST. LOUIS
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lightning
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lightning (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim
Lightning (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 16, 2026
TB @ STL
2 - 3
Dec 22, 2025
STL @ TB
1 - 4
Dec 19, 2024
STL @ TB
1 - 3
Nov 5, 2024
TB @ STL
2 - 3
Dec 19, 2023
STL @ TB
1 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+22.8% more
Tampa Bay: 31.3
vs
St. Louis: 25.5
Hits (L5)
+13.0% more
Tampa Bay: 21.5
vs
St. Louis: 19.1
Power Play % (L5)
+11.5%
Tampa Bay: 20.2%
vs
St. Louis: 8.7%
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.8%
Tampa Bay: 51.0%
vs
St. Louis: 47.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
1.0
1
TB Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
8.0 / 11.3
15.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
51.0 / 47.2
49.1 / 50.9
Hits
21.5 / 19.1
10.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
20.2 / 8.7
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
31.3 / 25.5
17.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
2.8 / 4.2
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
STL
TB
STL
ML
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
67%
2-1
50%
1-1-1
100%
3-0
50%
1-1-1
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