Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wake Forest @ Mississippi St WAKE @ MSST

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

8-4  |  Road

43
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

5-7  |  Home

29
AI Model Win Probability
WAKE FOREST
100%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
0%
WAKE FOREST --
MISSISSIPPI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Mississippi State)
Wake ForestWAKE (-3.5) 0 Mississippi StMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wake Forest Cover

41.5%

Mississippi St Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSST -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

WAKE By 1-6 points

15.3%

WAKE By 7-13 points

12.9%

MSST By 1-6 points

17.0%

MSST By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
27
WAKE FOREST
30
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
24
WAKE FOREST
27
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mississippi St Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Mississippi St Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mississippi St (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim Mississippi St (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Sim u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 2, 2026 WAKE @ MSST 43 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.9% more
Wake Forest: 2.4 vs Mississippi State: 1.5
Total Yards (L5) +9.5% more
Wake Forest: 430.9 vs Mississippi State: 389.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 27.0 43
MSST Score 30.0 29
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
MSST
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.7
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
WAKE
MSST
WAKE
ML
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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