Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona @ SMU ARIZ @ SMU

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

9-3  |  Road

19
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

8-4  |  Home

24
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA
0%
📊
SMU
100%
ARIZONA --
SMU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Arizona)
ArizonaARIZ (-3.5) 0 SMUSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona Cover

76.2%

SMU Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

ARIZ By 1-6 points

15.3%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

19.7%

SMU By 1-6 points

10.7%

SMU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
38
ARIZONA
28
SMU
Simulated Score
31
ARIZONA
27
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arizona Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Arizona Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arizona (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Sim Arizona (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 66.0
B
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 2, 2026 ARIZ @ SMU 19 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Arizona: 0.6 vs SMU: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.3% more
SMU: 171.5 vs Arizona: 140.3
Total Yards (L5) +19.1% more
SMU: 459.2 vs Arizona: 385.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
SMU: 0.5 vs Arizona: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 38.0 19
SMU Score 28.0 24
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
SMU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
SMU Advantage
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
ARIZ
SMU
ARIZ
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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