Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Navy @ Cincinnati NAVY @ CIN

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

10-2  |  Road

35
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 4:30 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

7-5  |  Home

13
AI Model Win Probability
NAVY
100%
📊
CINCINNATI
0%
NAVY --
CINCINNATI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Cincinnati)
NavyNAVY (-3.5) 0 CincinnatiCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Navy Cover

33.4%

Cincinnati Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

NAVY By 1-6 points

13.5%

NAVY By 7-13 points

10.4%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
14
NAVY
20
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
17
NAVY
31
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cincinnati Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Cincinnati Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cincinnati (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Sim Cincinnati (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
B
Sim u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 2, 2026 NAVY @ CIN 35 - 13
Nov 5, 2022 NAVY @ CIN 10 - 20
Oct 23, 2021 CIN @ NAVY 27 - 20
Nov 3, 2018 NAVY @ CIN 0 - 42
Sep 23, 2017 CIN @ NAVY 32 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +14.2% more
Cincinnati: 392.8 vs Navy: 344.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.8% more
Navy: 238.9 vs Cincinnati: 146.2
Time of Possession (L5) +17.0% more
Navy: 0.6 vs Cincinnati: 0.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Navy: 0.5 vs Cincinnati: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 14.0 35
CIN Score 20.0 13
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
CIN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
CIN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NAVY
CIN
NAVY
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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