Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rice @ Texas St RICE @ TXST

RICE

RICERICE

5-7  |  Road

10
FINAL
Fri, Jan 2 • 1:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

6-6  |  Home

41
AI Model Win Probability
RICE
100%
📊
TEXAS ST
0%
RICE --
TEXAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Texas State)
RiceRICE (-3.5) 0 Texas StTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rice Cover

17.7%

Texas St Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TXST -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

RICE By 1-6 points

8.6%

RICE By 7-13 points

5.3%

TXST By 1-6 points

13.5%

TXST By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
10
RICE
23
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
24
RICE
27
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas St Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Texas St Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
B
Sim Texas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 2, 2026 RICE @ TXST 10 - 41
Dec 26, 2023 TXST @ RICE 45 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +68.0% more
Texas State: 1.5 vs Rice: 0.8
Total Yards (L5) +60.6% more
Texas State: 485.1 vs Rice: 302.1
First Downs (L5) +43.0% more
Texas State: 24.4 vs Rice: 17.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Texas State: 0.5 vs Rice: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RICE Score 10.0 10
TXST Score 23.0 41
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICE
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
TXST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
RICE
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.7
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
RICE
TXST
RICE
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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