Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Michigan @ Texas MICH @ TEX

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

9-3  |  Road

27
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 3:00 PM ET
Camping World Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

9-3  |  Home

41
Key Game
Hudson Hollenbeck
KEY GAME

Hudson Hollenbeck

#90 | Punter
@
Wardell Mack
KEY GAME

Wardell Mack

#27 | Defensive Back
Player
Hudson Hollenbeck None-None
Wardell Mack None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN
0%
📊
TEXAS
100%
MICHIGAN --
TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Michigan)
MichiganMICH (-3.5) 0 TexasTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan Cover

96.3%

Texas Cover

3.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MICH -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

MICH By 1-6 points

5.3%

MICH By 7-13 points

11.3%

TEX By 1-6 points

2.2%

TEX By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
45
MICHIGAN
20
TEXAS
Simulated Score
24
MICHIGAN
31
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Michigan Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Texas Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Michigan (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
B
Sim Texas (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
B
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 MICH @ TEX 27 - 41
Sep 7, 2024 TEX @ MICH 31 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +79.7% more
Michigan: 1.4 vs Texas: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.8% more
Michigan: 183.7 vs Texas: 127.1
Total Yards (L5) +15.3% more
Texas: 393.5 vs Michigan: 341.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MICH Score 45.0 27
TEX Score 20.0 41
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.9
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
MICH
TEX
MICH
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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