Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / GA Southern @ App State GASO @ APP

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

6-6  |  Road

29
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 2:00 PM ET
Protective Stadium
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

5-7  |  Home

10
Key Game
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
@
Jackson Grier
KEY GAME

Jackson Grier

#13 | Wide Receiver
Player
Tripp Bryant None-None
Jackson Grier None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GA SOUTHERN
0%
📊
APP STATE
100%
GA SOUTHERN --
APP STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Georgia Southern)
GA SouthernGASO (-3.5) 0 App StateAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

GA Southern Cover

97.7%

App State Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around GASO -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

GASO By 1-6 points

3.8%

GASO By 7-13 points

8.8%

APP By 1-6 points

1.4%

APP By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
41
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
13
APP STATE
Simulated Score
24
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
27
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI GA Southern Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim App State Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI GA Southern (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
A
Sim App State (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Sim u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 GASO @ APP 29 - 10
Nov 6, 2025 GASO @ APP 25 - 23
Nov 30, 2024 APP @ GASO 20 - 29
Nov 25, 2023 GASO @ APP 27 - 55
Nov 26, 2022 APP @ GASO 48 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.6% more
Georgia Southern: 156.2 vs App State: 122.4
Total Yards (L5) +21.4% more
Georgia Southern: 448.9 vs App State: 353.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Georgia Southern: 0.5 vs App State: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +15.7% more
Georgia Southern: 23.6 vs App State: 19.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 41.0 29
APP Score 13.0 10
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
APP
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.9
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
GASO
APP
GASO
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
0% 0-4
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-5
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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