HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
17-8 | Road
124
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
6-22 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
KINGS
100%
ROCKETS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
6.8%
HOU By 8-14 points
16.9%
SAC By 1-7 points
1.4%
SAC By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
130
HOUSTON
Sacramento
109
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Houston
109
HOUSTON
Sacramento
115
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o223.0
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u223.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
SAC @ HOU
97 - 128
Jan 11, 2026
HOU @ SAC
98 - 111
Dec 21, 2025
HOU @ SAC
124 - 125
Dec 3, 2025
SAC @ HOU
95 - 121
Mar 1, 2025
SAC @ HOU
113 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+14.1% more
Houston: 26.3
vs
Sacramento: 22.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.7%
Houston: 43.0%
vs
Sacramento: 29.4%
Rebounding (L5)
+11.3% more
Houston: 49.2
vs
Sacramento: 43.7
Turnovers (L5)
+11.3% more
Houston: 18.7
vs
Sacramento: 16.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
130.0
124
SAC Score
109.0
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.4 / 43.0
38.0 / 42.0
Assists
22.6 / 26.3
29.0 / 31.0
Blocks
6.3 / 7.1
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 49.7
46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 76.2
69.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
43.7 / 49.2
55.0 / 47.0
Steals
11.0 / 7.0
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.6 / 18.7
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
SAC
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
HOU
SAC
HOU
ML
55%
55-45
61%
69-44
61%
50-32
59%
51-35
ATS
54%
52-45-3
62%
70-43
61%
50-32
59%
51-35
TTL
58%
57-42-1
51%
58-55
100%
82-0
100%
86-0
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