MIAMI
HEATMIA
15-13 | Road
125
NEW YORK
KNICKSNY
19-8 | Home
132
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
KNICKS
100%
HEAT
--
KNICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
15.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
25.3%
NY By 1-7 points
4.8%
NY By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
122
MIAMI
New York
107
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Miami
108
MIAMI
New York
112
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Knicks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-7)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Knicks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.0
Loss
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 21, 2025
MIA @ NY
125 - 132
Nov 17, 2025
NY @ MIA
113 - 115
Nov 14, 2025
MIA @ NY
132 - 140
Oct 26, 2025
NY @ MIA
107 - 115
Mar 17, 2025
MIA @ NY
95 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+13.7% more
Miami: 7.9
vs
New York: 6.8
Rebounding (L5)
+11.3% more
New York: 51.4
vs
Miami: 46.1
Assists (L5)
+9.8% more
New York: 27.1
vs
Miami: 24.7
Turnovers (L5)
+8.5% more
New York: 14.9
vs
Miami: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
122.0
125
NY Score
107.0
132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 33.6
53.0 / 49.0
Assists
27.1 / 24.7
28.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.9
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 43.3
55.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 75.1
86.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
51.4 / 46.1
36.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.9
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 13.7
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
NY
Advantage
70-32-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
NY
Advantage
58-44-0
(56.9%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
MIA
NY
MIA
ML
61%
114-72
48%
46-50
56%
57-45
59%
48-34
ATS
67%
124-62
51%
49-47
56%
57-45
59%
48-34
TTL
72%
133-53
59%
57-39
100%
102-0
100%
82-0
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