CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
12-15 | Road
152
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
15-14 | Home
150
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
HAWKS
0%
BULLS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
CHI By 1-7 points
5.8%
CHI By 8-14 points
1.4%
ATL By 1-7 points
16.9%
ATL By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
96
CHICAGO
Atlanta
110
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Chicago
112
CHICAGO
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (-5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u247.5
Loss
Proj Total: 206.0
D
Sim
u247.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 23, 2025
CHI @ ATL
126 - 123
Dec 21, 2025
CHI @ ATL
152 - 150
Oct 27, 2025
ATL @ CHI
123 - 128
Jan 15, 2025
ATL @ CHI
110 - 94
Dec 26, 2024
CHI @ ATL
133 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+19.0% more
Atlanta: 16.5
vs
Chicago: 13.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.5%
Atlanta: 81.7%
vs
Chicago: 79.2%
Steals (L5)
+24.3% more
Chicago: 10.4
vs
Atlanta: 7.8
Blocks (L5)
+24.0% more
Chicago: 4.1
vs
Atlanta: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
96.0
152
ATL Score
110.0
150
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 35.2
49.0 / 48.0
Assists
29.6 / 30.6
39.0 / 41.0
Blocks
3.1 / 4.1
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 49.6
52.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
81.7 / 79.2
78.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
42.7 / 44.6
35.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.8 / 10.4
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 13.9
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CHI
ATL
CHI
ML
50%
52-52
56%
54-42
55%
48-40
57%
46-35
ATS
53%
55-48-1
65%
62-33-1
55%
48-40
57%
46-35
TTL
53%
55-48-1
58%
56-40
100%
88-0
100%
81-0
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