MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
19-12-4 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
14-11-9 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jakub Dobes
#75 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Arturs Silovs
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes | None-None | 2.77 | 0.903 | -- |
| Arturs Silovs | None-None | 2.77 | 0.880 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.77
GAA
2.77
0.903 Ldr
Save %
0.880
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
CANADIENS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
MTL By 1 goal
12.1%
MTL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
PIT By 1 goal
19.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Canadiens
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Penguins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Canadiens (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
MTL @ PIT
5 - 6
Dec 21, 2025
MTL @ PIT
3 - 4
Dec 20, 2025
PIT @ MTL
0 - 4
Dec 11, 2025
MTL @ PIT
4 - 2
Dec 12, 2024
PIT @ MTL
9 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+16.3% more
Pittsburgh: 22.0
vs
Montreal: 18.9
Takeaways (L5)
+15.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.4
vs
Montreal: 3.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.7%
Montreal: 51.0%
vs
Pittsburgh: 46.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
2.0
3
PIT Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.9 / 14.0
11.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
46.3 / 51.0
51.9 / 48.1
Hits
22.0 / 18.9
30.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
14.0 / 13.0
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.7 / 27.7
31.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 3.8
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MTL
PIT
MTL
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
ATS
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
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