Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Nittany Lions PITT @ PSU

PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

6-6  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 12:00 PM ET
Giant Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

8-3  |  Home

46
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
0%
PANTHERS --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Penn State)
PanthersPITT (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

46.0%

Nittany Lions Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

PITT By 1-7 points

24.3%

PITT By 8-14 points

13.7%

PSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

PSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
PITTSBURGH
68
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
70
PITTSBURGH
73
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 PITT @ PSU 80 - 46
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +20.9% more
Penn State: 9.2 vs Pittsburgh: 7.6
Free Throw % (L5) +10.5%
Penn State: 78.6% vs Pittsburgh: 68.2%
Blocks (L5) +22.0% more
Pittsburgh: 3.3 vs Penn State: 2.6
Assists (L5) +13.5% more
Pittsburgh: 14.7 vs Penn State: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 67.0 80
PSU Score 68.0 46
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 40.1 17.0 / 50.0
Assists 12.8 / 14.7 7.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.3 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 49.8 33.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 78.6 / 68.2 67.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 28.3 / 31.8 30.0 / 42.0
Steals 9.2 / 7.6 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 11.0 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT Advantage
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
PITT
PSU
PITT
ML
72% 23-9
58% 19-14
56% 18-14
45% 15-18
ATS
72% 23-9
64% 21-12
56% 18-14
45% 15-18
TTL
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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