Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Blazers UNCA @ UAB

UNC ASHEVILLE

BULLDOGSUNCA

6-7  |  Road

47
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 3:00 PM ET
Bartow Arena
View Odds Details →

UAB

BLAZERSUAB

8-4  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
BLAZERS
100%
BULLDOGS --
BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (UNC Asheville)
BulldogsUNCA (-3.5) 0 BlazersUAB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

100.0%

Blazers Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCA -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)

UNCA By 1-7 points

0.1%

UNCA By 8-14 points

1.1%

UAB By 1-7 points

0.0%

UAB By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
86
UNC ASHEVILLE
49
UAB
Simulated Score
72
UNC ASHEVILLE
78
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 UNCA @ UAB 47 - 72
Dec 29, 2023 UNCA @ UAB 85 - 90
Nov 9, 2021 UNCA @ UAB 77 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.4% more
UNC Asheville: 15.9 vs UAB: 9.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
UNC Asheville: 34.9% vs UAB: 32.0%
Blocks (L5) +100.9% more
UAB: 4.4 vs UNC Asheville: 2.2
Steals (L5) +72.2% more
UAB: 6.9 vs UNC Asheville: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCA Score 86.0 47
UAB Score 49.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 34.9 31.0 / 20.0
Assists 14.7 / 13.0 16.0 / 4.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.2 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 48.8 44.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 67.4 67.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 36.3 41.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.9 / 4.0 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 15.9 5.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
12%MONEY88%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCA
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
UAB Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCA Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
UAB
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: -2.8
UAB
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
UNCA
UAB
UNCA
ML
59% 19-13
53% 16-14
41% 13-19
63% 19-11
ATS
56% 18-14
57% 17-13
41% 13-19
63% 19-11
TTL
69% 22-10
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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