Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Dons MORG @ SF

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

2-9  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 6:00 PM ET
The Sobrato Center
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

7-5  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
DONS
0%
BEARS --
DONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
BearsMORG (-3.5) 0 DonsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

38.2%

Dons Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

MORG By 1-7 points

21.6%

MORG By 8-14 points

10.7%

SF By 1-7 points

27.2%

SF By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
75
MORGAN STATE
78
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
60
MORGAN STATE
78
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dons (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Dons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 MORG @ SF 64 - 94
Nov 22, 2021 MORG @ SF 67 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +52.8% more
San Francisco: 4.4 vs Morgan State: 2.9
Assists (L5) +27.7% more
San Francisco: 14.7 vs Morgan State: 11.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.4%
San Francisco: 36.1% vs Morgan State: 21.7%
Rebounding (L5) +11.2% more
San Francisco: 33.8 vs Morgan State: 30.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 75.0 64
SF Score 78.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 21.7 28.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.7 / 11.5 16.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.9 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 41.4 56.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 67.9 / 72.9 69.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 30.4 42.0 / 22.0
Steals 4.0 / 4.3 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 7.7 / 16.0 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
SF Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
MORG
SF
MORG
ML
39% 13-20
50% 14-14
64% 21-12
58% 14-10
ATS
42% 14-19
50% 14-14
64% 21-12
58% 14-10
TTL
73% 24-9
50% 14-14
100% 33-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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