NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
5-6 | Road
66
INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
5-6 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UIW +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)
NAU By 1-7 points
26.2%
NAU By 8-14 points
16.9%
UIW By 1-7 points
24.3%
UIW By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Arizona
62
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Incarnate Word
61
INCARNATE WORD
Simulated Score
Northern Arizona
69
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Incarnate Word
74
INCARNATE WORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lumberjacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 21, 2025
NAU @ UIW
66 - 90
Nov 22, 2024
UIW @ NAU
74 - 75
Dec 9, 2023
NAU @ UIW
76 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+36.9% more
Northern Arizona: 9.3
vs
Incarnate Word: 5.9
Blocks (L5)
+9.4% more
Northern Arizona: 2.7
vs
Incarnate Word: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.8%
Northern Arizona: 74.0%
vs
Incarnate Word: 67.2%
Assists (L5)
+28.1% more
Incarnate Word: 14.8
vs
Northern Arizona: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NAU Score
62.0
66
UIW Score
61.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.6 / 37.6
43.0 / 47.0
Assists
14.8 / 11.5
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.7
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 43.5
48.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
67.2 / 74.0
67.0 / 48.0
Rebounding
32.3 / 31.9
39.0 / 26.0
Steals
5.9 / 9.3
8.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 11.9
7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
UIW
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
UIW
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIW
NAU
UIW
NAU
ML
47%
14-16
62%
20-12
76%
22-7
81%
26-6
ATS
53%
16-14
62%
20-12
77%
23-7
81%
26-6
TTL
60%
18-12
66%
21-11
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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