Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Bears SOU @ BAY

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

4-7  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Foster Pavilion
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

8-2  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
JAGUARS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Baylor)
JaguarsSOU (-3.5) 0 BearsBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

18.4%

Bears Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

SOU By 1-7 points

12.2%

SOU By 8-14 points

4.0%

BAY By 1-7 points

24.3%

BAY By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
59
SOUTHERN
68
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
60
SOUTHERN
85
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 SOU @ BAY 67 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +79.7% more
Baylor: 5.6 vs Southern: 3.1
Assists (L5) +64.3% more
Baylor: 18.6 vs Southern: 11.3
Rebounding (L5) +23.0% more
Baylor: 44.1 vs Southern: 35.8
Free Throw % (L5) +10.1%
Baylor: 79.9% vs Southern: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 59.0 67
BAY Score 68.0 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 36.8 53.0 / 28.0
Assists 18.6 / 11.3 28.0 / 12.0
Blocks 5.6 / 3.1 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 53.7 / 44.4 55.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 79.9 / 69.9 77.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 44.1 / 35.8 44.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.6 / 9.3 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 14.9 4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
BAY
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
BAY Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
SOU
BAY
SOU
ML
58% 19-14
67% 22-11
53% 17-15
70% 21-9
ATS
58% 19-14
64% 21-12
53% 17-15
70% 21-9
TTL
45% 15-18
42% 14-19
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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