Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dragons @ Spartans UVAL @ UNCG

VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG

DRAGONSUVAL

0-0  |  Road

53
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 2:00 PM ET
First Horizon Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

3-9  |  Home

131
AI Model Win Probability
DRAGONS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
DRAGONS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
UNC GREENSBORO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (UNC Greensboro)
DragonsUVAL (-3.5) 0 SpartansUNCG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dragons Cover

0.0%

Spartans Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCG -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCG)

UVAL By 1-7 points

0.0%

UVAL By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNCG By 1-7 points

0.1%

UNCG By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
73
VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
113
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
48
VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
102
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -54.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 UVAL @ UNCG 53 - 131
Dec 28, 2024 UVAL @ UNCG 50 - 105
Dec 21, 2023 UVAL @ UNCG 57 - 135
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +80.3% more
UNC Greensboro: 35.2 vs Virginia-Lynchburg: 19.5
Assists (L5) +35.2% more
UNC Greensboro: 13.3 vs Virginia-Lynchburg: 9.8
Blocks (L5) +22.4% more
UNC Greensboro: 1.6 vs Virginia-Lynchburg: 1.3
Field Goal % (L5) +13.7%
UNC Greensboro: 44.6% vs Virginia-Lynchburg: 30.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVAL Score 73.0 53
UNCG Score 113.0 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 26.5 40.0 / 21.0
Assists 13.3 / 9.8 30.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.6 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 30.9 63.0 / 27.0
Free Throw % 67.0 / 71.3 83.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 19.5 65.0 / 22.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.9 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.0 / 16.0 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVAL
--
UNCG Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVAL
--
UNCG Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UVAL
--
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
UVAL
UNCG
UVAL
ML
38% 13-21
78% 7-2
71% 24-10
100% 9-0
ATS
44% 15-19
78% 7-2
71% 24-10
100% 9-0
TTL
76% 26-8
44% 4-5
100% 34-0
100% 9-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Michigan State Lands Five-Star Point Guard Antonio Pemberton: Wh…
yahoo 2 weeks, 6 days ago
Brady Pretzlaff's Long Road Back to Spartan Stadium: A Promise F…
yahoo 3 weeks, 5 days ago
Virginia Set for Friday Night Blowout Against Norfolk State, Ana…
si 4 weeks ago
Former Michigan State Forward Jaxon Kohler Finds New Home at BYU
newspub_live 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Dec 6, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Duke Blue Devils cente…
si 2 months, 1 week ago