Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mastodons @ Fighting Irish PFW @ ND

PURDUE FORT WAYNE

MASTODONSPFW

7-6  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 2:00 PM ET
Purcell Pavilion
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

9-3  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
0%
📊
FIGHTING IRISH
100%
MASTODONS --
FIGHTING IRISH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Purdue Fort Wayne)
MastodonsPFW (-3.5) 0 Fighting IrishND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mastodons Cover

100.0%

Fighting Irish Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PFW -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PFW)

PFW By 1-7 points

0.2%

PFW By 8-14 points

1.4%

ND By 1-7 points

0.0%

ND By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
86
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
50
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
64
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
78
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mastodons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Irish Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mastodons (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim Fighting Irish (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 PFW @ ND 72 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.5% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 3.8 vs Notre Dame: 2.0
Steals (L5) +38.6% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 8.2 vs Notre Dame: 5.0
Turnovers (L5) +35.3% more
Notre Dame: 11.5 vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 8.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.5%
Notre Dame: 48.9% vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PFW Score 86.0 72
ND Score 50.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 48.9 / 37.4 26.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.9 / 14.6 11.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.8 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 49.1 40.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 68.6 / 67.3 82.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 33.6 43.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.0 / 8.2 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 8.5 15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
ND Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: -0.7
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
PFW
ND
PFW
ML
65% 20-11
59% 19-13
77% 24-7
74% 23-8
ATS
55% 17-14
62% 20-12
77% 24-7
74% 23-8
TTL
68% 21-10
59% 19-13
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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