MURRAY STATE
RACERSMUR
9-3 | Road
85
VALPARAISO
BEACONSVAL
6-5 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
100%
BEACONS
0%
RACERS
--
BEACONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Valparaiso)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAL -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)
MUR By 1-7 points
0.1%
MUR By 8-14 points
0.0%
VAL By 1-7 points
0.6%
VAL By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Murray State
61
MURRAY STATE
Valparaiso
93
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
Murray State
72
MURRAY STATE
Valparaiso
78
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Beacons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beacons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Beacons (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim
Beacons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 10, 2026
VAL @ MUR
79 - 92
Dec 21, 2025
MUR @ VAL
85 - 79
Feb 8, 2025
MUR @ VAL
74 - 56
Jan 11, 2025
VAL @ MUR
47 - 58
Feb 24, 2024
VAL @ MUR
68 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.2% more
Valparaiso: 5.9
vs
Murray State: 4.6
Blocks (L5)
+21.0% more
Murray State: 3.9
vs
Valparaiso: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+12.2% more
Murray State: 15.5
vs
Valparaiso: 13.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.5%
Murray State: 40.0%
vs
Valparaiso: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MUR Score
61.0
85
VAL Score
93.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 40.0
39.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.6 / 15.5
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.9
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 47.6
48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
70.9 / 77.3
67.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
37.0 / 38.6
34.0 / 36.0
Steals
5.9 / 4.6
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 11.2
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
VAL
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
VAL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
MUR
VAL
MUR
ML
48%
16-17
58%
19-14
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
ATS
52%
17-16
52%
17-16
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
TTL
61%
20-13
70%
23-10
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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