Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Phoenix @ Blue Raiders CMBL @ MTSU

CUMBERLAND (TN)

PHOENIXCMBL

0-0  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 2:00 PM ET
Murphy Center
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

6-4  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
PHOENIX
100%
📊
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
PHOENIX --
BLUE RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
PhoenixCMBL (-3.5) 0 Blue RaidersMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phoenix Cover

0.1%

Blue Raiders Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTSU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

CMBL By 1-7 points

0.1%

CMBL By 8-14 points

0.0%

MTSU By 1-7 points

0.8%

MTSU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
66
CUMBERLAND (TN)
97
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
65
CUMBERLAND (TN)
72
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders (+41.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Blue Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 CMBL @ MTSU 58 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +400.0% more
Middle Tennessee: 6.7 vs Cumberland (TN): 1.3
Assists (L5) +65.1% more
Middle Tennessee: 11.6 vs Cumberland (TN): 7.0
Rebounding (L5) +52.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 37.7 vs Cumberland (TN): 24.7
Free Throw % (L5) +18.1%
Middle Tennessee: 73.1% vs Cumberland (TN): 55.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CMBL Score 66.0 58
MTSU Score 97.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 40.3 27.0 / 28.0
Assists 11.6 / 7.0 10.0 / 11.0
Blocks 6.7 / 1.3 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.7 / 34.3 45.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 73.1 / 55.0 75.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 24.7 35.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.0 / 5.7 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 10.0 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMBL
--
MTSU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMBL
--
MTSU Advantage
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CMBL
--
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
CMBL
MTSU
CMBL
ML
56% 18-14
100% 1-0
69% 22-10
100% 1-0
ATS
75% 24-8
100% 1-0
69% 22-10
100% 1-0
TTL
53% 17-15
0% 0-1
100% 32-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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