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OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

6-6  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 3:00 PM ET
Desert Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

9-3  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BEAVERS
0%
📊
SUN DEVILS
100%
BEAVERS --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
108.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Oregon State)
BeaversORST (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beavers Cover

99.9%

Sun Devils Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORST -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

ORST By 1-7 points

0.6%

ORST By 8-14 points

3.3%

ASU By 1-7 points

0.1%

ASU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
OREGON STATE
38
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
68
OREGON STATE
70
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Beavers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Beavers (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 108.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 ORST @ ASU 78 - 75
Feb 14, 2024 ORST @ ASU 61 - 79
Jan 27, 2024 ASU @ ORST 71 - 84
Mar 8, 2023 ORST @ ASU 57 - 63
Feb 2, 2023 ORST @ ASU 57 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +38.7% more
Oregon State: 5.3 vs Arizona State: 3.3
Assists (L5) +15.7% more
Arizona State: 15.4 vs Oregon State: 13.3
Rebounding (L5) +11.3% more
Arizona State: 33.9 vs Oregon State: 30.5
Steals (L5) +11.2% more
Arizona State: 7.5 vs Oregon State: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 70.0 78
ASU Score 38.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 33.1 21.0 / 36.0
Assists 15.4 / 13.3 11.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.3 / 5.3 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 45.1 45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 80.6 / 79.0 88.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 30.5 29.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.5 / 6.7 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 11.6 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
ORST
ASU
ORST
ML
52% 17-16
45% 15-18
68% 21-10
59% 19-13
ATS
52% 17-16
48% 16-17
68% 21-10
59% 19-13
TTL
64% 21-12
55% 18-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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