SAM HOUSTON
BEARKATSSHSU
7-3 | Road
78
NEW MEXICO STATE
AGGIESNMSU
6-3 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
0%
AGGIES
100%
BEARKATS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Sam Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)
SHSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
SHSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
NMSU By 1-7 points
5.8%
NMSU By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Sam Houston
77
SAM HOUSTON
New Mexico State
63
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
Sam Houston
68
SAM HOUSTON
New Mexico State
72
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bearkats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bearkats (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
NMSU @ SHSU
61 - 69
Dec 21, 2025
SHSU @ NMSU
78 - 87
Mar 8, 2025
NMSU @ SHSU
69 - 76
Jan 2, 2025
SHSU @ NMSU
71 - 75
Feb 22, 2024
SHSU @ NMSU
79 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+22.7% more
Sam Houston: 42.9
vs
New Mexico State: 33.2
Assists (L5)
+21.2% more
Sam Houston: 16.9
vs
New Mexico State: 13.3
Steals (L5)
+8.3% more
Sam Houston: 7.9
vs
New Mexico State: 7.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Sam Houston: 45.4%
vs
New Mexico State: 40.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score
77.0
78
NMSU Score
63.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.4 / 35.1
38.0 / 32.0
Assists
13.3 / 16.9
13.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.2
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
40.1 / 45.4
51.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
72.5 / 74.9
73.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
33.2 / 42.9
35.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.3 / 7.9
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 12.7
7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
NMSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
NMSU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.2
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3%
Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
SHSU
NMSU
SHSU
ML
61%
19-12
55%
18-15
67%
20-10
74%
23-8
ATS
65%
20-11
64%
21-12
67%
20-10
74%
23-8
TTL
45%
14-17
48%
16-17
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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