DRAKE
BULLDOGSDRKE
6-6 | Road
66
EVANSVILLE
PURPLE ACESEVAN
4-8 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
PURPLE ACES
0%
BULLDOGS
--
PURPLE ACES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
EVANSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Evansville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around EVAN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EVAN)
DRKE By 1-7 points
15.3%
DRKE By 8-14 points
5.8%
EVAN By 1-7 points
26.2%
EVAN By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Drake
66
DRAKE
Evansville
73
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
Drake
75
DRAKE
Evansville
68
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Purple Aces
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Purple Aces (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
EVAN @ DRKE
78 - 82
Dec 21, 2025
DRKE @ EVAN
66 - 65
Feb 26, 2025
DRKE @ EVAN
65 - 61
Jan 11, 2025
EVAN @ DRKE
40 - 63
Mar 8, 2024
EVAN @ DRKE
58 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+103.8% more
Evansville: 5.4
vs
Drake: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+40.5% more
Evansville: 5.7
vs
Drake: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+32.5% more
Evansville: 13.4
vs
Drake: 10.1
Assists (L5)
+12.6% more
Drake: 14.9
vs
Evansville: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DRKE Score
66.0
66
EVAN Score
73.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 36.8
30.0 / 36.0
Assists
13.0 / 14.9
10.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.4 / 2.6
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
40.5 / 48.5
40.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
71.6 / 79.2
73.0 / 45.0
Rebounding
34.0 / 34.1
35.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.7 / 4.1
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 10.1
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DRKE
Advantage
14-20-0
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
EVAN
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DRKE
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
EVAN
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DRKE
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +3.9
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
DRKE
EVAN
DRKE
ML
56%
18-14
59%
20-14
62%
20-12
38%
13-21
ATS
66%
21-11
85%
29-5
62%
20-12
38%
13-21
TTL
62%
20-12
56%
19-15
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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