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LONG BEACH STATE

BEACHLBSU

3-9  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 6:00 PM ET
Hilton Coliseum
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

11-0  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
100%
📊
CYCLONES
0%
BEACH --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Iowa State)
BeachLBSU (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beach Cover

38.2%

Cyclones Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ISU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

LBSU By 1-7 points

21.6%

LBSU By 8-14 points

10.7%

ISU By 1-7 points

27.2%

ISU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
73
LONG BEACH STATE
76
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
65
LONG BEACH STATE
78
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cyclones Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cyclones Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cyclones (+37.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Cyclones (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 LBSU @ ISU 60 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +120.4% more
Iowa State: 4.2 vs Long Beach State: 1.9
Steals (L5) +48.4% more
Iowa State: 10.4 vs Long Beach State: 7.0
Assists (L5) +34.5% more
Iowa State: 17.9 vs Long Beach State: 13.3
Rebounding (L5) +12.1% more
Iowa State: 33.8 vs Long Beach State: 30.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score 73.0 60
ISU Score 76.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 41.1 52.0 / 14.0
Assists 17.9 / 13.3 23.0 / 6.0
Blocks 4.2 / 1.9 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 48.2 55.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 76.1 44.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 30.2 45.0 / 28.0
Steals 10.4 / 7.0 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 11.0 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5% Total +/-: +4.7
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
LBSU
ISU
LBSU
ML
57% 21-16
55% 17-14
76% 26-8
65% 20-11
ATS
62% 23-14
68% 21-10
76% 26-8
65% 20-11
TTL
54% 20-17
61% 19-12
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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