Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Bengals UCD @ IDST

UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

5-5  |  Road

93
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 6:00 PM ET
Reed Gym
View Odds Details →

IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

7-5  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
BENGALS
0%
AGGIES --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Idaho State)
AggiesUCD (-3.5) 0 BengalsIDST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

34.5%

Bengals Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IDST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)

UCD By 1-7 points

20.1%

UCD By 8-14 points

9.3%

IDST By 1-7 points

27.4%

IDST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
67
UC DAVIS
71
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
69
UC DAVIS
72
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bengals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bengals (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 UCD @ IDST 93 - 83
Nov 28, 2020 IDST @ UCD 61 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +71.8% more
Idaho State: 4.1 vs UC Davis: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +10.6% more
Idaho State: 31.7 vs UC Davis: 28.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Idaho State: 37.4% vs UC Davis: 34.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Idaho State: 46.4% vs UC Davis: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCD Score 67.0 93
IDST Score 71.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 34.0 46.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.1 / 15.2 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.1 / 2.4 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 44.6 48.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 74.0 76.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 28.6 28.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.5 / 7.0 0.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 13.0 11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
UCD
IDST
UCD
ML
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
72% 23-9
64% 21-12
ATS
50% 16-16
61% 20-13
72% 23-9
64% 21-12
TTL
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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