PENN STATE (BRANDYWINE)
LIONSPSBW
0-0 | Road
42
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
MOUNTAINEERSMSM
3-9 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
LIONS
--
MOUNTAINEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-51.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +51.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSM -51.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)
PSBW By 1-7 points
0.0%
PSBW By 8-14 points
0.0%
MSM By 1-7 points
0.0%
MSM By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Penn State (Brandywine)
64
PENN STATE (BRANDYWINE)
Mount St. Mary's
115
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
Penn State (Brandywine)
51
PENN STATE (BRANDYWINE)
Mount St. Mary's
92
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mountaineers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mountaineers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mountaineers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -51.0
D
Sim
Mountaineers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 21, 2025
PSBW @ MSM
42 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+321.0% more
Mount St. Mary's: 3.2
vs
Penn State (Brandywine): 0.0
Steals (L5)
+10.3% more
Mount St. Mary's: 7.7
vs
Penn State (Brandywine): 7.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.8%
Mount St. Mary's: 44.8%
vs
Penn State (Brandywine): 37.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+18.9%
Penn State (Brandywine): 88.0%
vs
Mount St. Mary's: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PSBW Score
64.0
42
MSM Score
115.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 41.0
29.0 / 40.0
Assists
14.1 / 14.0
26.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.2 / 0.0
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 37.0
48.0 / 28.0
Free Throw %
69.1 / 88.0
43.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 32.0
38.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.7 / 7.0
17.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
19.1 / 21.0
15.0 / 28.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSBW
--
MSM
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSBW
--
MSM
Advantage
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PSBW
--
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
PSBW
MSM
PSBW
ML
53%
17-15
100%
1-0
61%
19-12
100%
1-0
ATS
62%
20-12
100%
1-0
61%
19-12
100%
1-0
TTL
81%
26-6
0%
0-1
100%
31-0
100%
1-0
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