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UMBC

RETRIEVERSUMBC

6-5  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 3:00 PM ET
Yuengling Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

6-5  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
100%
📊
BULLS
0%
RETRIEVERS --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (South Florida)
RetrieversUMBC (-3.5) 0 BullsUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Retrievers Cover

6.7%

Bulls Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USF -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

UMBC By 1-7 points

4.8%

UMBC By 8-14 points

1.1%

USF By 1-7 points

15.3%

USF By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
55
UMBC
70
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
66
UMBC
73
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulls (+22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Bulls (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 UMBC @ USF 69 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +99.1% more
South Florida: 8.7 vs UMBC: 4.4
Blocks (L5) +40.5% more
South Florida: 5.4 vs UMBC: 3.9
Rebounding (L5) +28.5% more
South Florida: 43.3 vs UMBC: 33.7
Turnovers (L5) +23.2% more
South Florida: 12.6 vs UMBC: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score 55.0 69
USF Score 70.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 33.6 42.0 / 29.0
Assists 15.3 / 14.0 23.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.4 / 3.9 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 46.7 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 68.3 72.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 43.3 / 33.7 38.0 / 31.0
Steals 8.7 / 4.4 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 10.2 8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
USF
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
UMBC
USF
UMBC
ML
61% 20-13
58% 18-13
52% 16-15
55% 17-14
ATS
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
52% 16-15
55% 17-14
TTL
52% 17-16
39% 12-19
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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