Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Wolfpack MISS @ NCSU

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

7-4  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 1:00 PM ET
First Horizon Coliseum
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

8-4  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
📊
WOLFPACK
0%
REBELS --
WOLFPACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (NC State)
RebelsMISS (-3.5) 0 WolfpackNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

46.0%

Wolfpack Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

MISS By 1-7 points

24.3%

MISS By 8-14 points

13.7%

NCSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

NCSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
OLE MISS
68
NC STATE
Simulated Score
75
OLE MISS
78
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolfpack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Wolfpack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 MISS @ NCSU 62 - 76
Nov 28, 2023 NCSU @ MISS 52 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +26.4% more
NC State: 40.6 vs Ole Miss: 32.2
Assists (L5) +26.0% more
NC State: 18.0 vs Ole Miss: 14.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.2%
NC State: 78.0% vs Ole Miss: 70.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
NC State: 36.9% vs Ole Miss: 33.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 67.0 62
NCSU Score 68.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 33.8 41.0 / 27.0
Assists 18.0 / 14.3 20.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.2 / 5.1 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 47.0 51.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 78.0 / 70.8 54.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 32.2 36.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.3 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 8.1 / 10.6 16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
--
NCSU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
--
NCSU Advantage
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
--
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
MISS
NCSU
MISS
ML
59% 20-14
48% 16-17
55% 18-15
52% 17-16
ATS
71% 24-10
61% 20-13
55% 18-15
52% 17-16
TTL
71% 24-10
64% 21-12
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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