UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
6-6 | Road
78
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
9-4 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
TOMMIES
0%
HIGHLANDERS
--
TOMMIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STMN -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)
UCR By 1-7 points
8.0%
UCR By 8-14 points
2.2%
STMN By 1-7 points
20.1%
STMN By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Riverside
70
UC RIVERSIDE
St. Thomas-Minnesota
82
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
UC Riverside
68
UC RIVERSIDE
St. Thomas-Minnesota
73
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tommies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tommies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tommies (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Tommies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 20, 2025
UCR @ STMN
78 - 92
Dec 29, 2024
STMN @ UCR
79 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+108.6% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 9.5
vs
UC Riverside: 4.5
Assists (L5)
+15.1% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 14.8
vs
UC Riverside: 12.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 50.9%
vs
UC Riverside: 46.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 63.0%
vs
UC Riverside: 59.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCR Score
70.0
78
STMN Score
82.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 36.3
50.0 / 41.0
Assists
14.8 / 12.8
22.0 / 20.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.9
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 46.0
61.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
63.0 / 59.2
84.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
35.4 / 36.1
24.0 / 29.0
Steals
9.5 / 4.5
9.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 10.8
6.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
Advantage
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
STMN
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
UCR
STMN
UCR
ML
64%
21-12
66%
21-11
64%
21-12
75%
24-8
ATS
70%
23-10
59%
19-13
64%
21-12
75%
24-8
TTL
61%
20-13
66%
21-11
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
