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NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

19-13-3  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 5:00 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

15-14-4  |  Home

3
Goaltending
👤
GOALTENDER

Marshall Warren

#41 | D
@
Alex Lyon
GOALTENDER

Alex Lyon

#34 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Marshall Warren None-None -- -- --
Alex Lyon None-None 1.85 0.941 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 1.85
-- Save % 0.941
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
📊
SABRES
0%
ISLANDERS --
SABRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
IslandersNYI (-3.5) 0 SabresBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Islanders Cover

30.9%

Sabres Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

NYI By 1 goal

12.1%

NYI By 2-3 goals

9.3%

BUF By 1 goal

19.7%

BUF By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEW YORK
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
2
NEW YORK
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sabres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sabres (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Sabres (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 NYI @ BUF 3 - 4
Jan 24, 2026 BUF @ NYI 5 - 0
Dec 20, 2025 NYI @ BUF 2 - 3
Dec 23, 2024 BUF @ NYI 7 - 1
Nov 30, 2024 BUF @ NYI 0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +48.7% more
Buffalo: 5.9 vs New York: 3.9
Shots on Goal (L5) +10.8% more
Buffalo: 25.6 vs New York: 23.1
Power Play % (L5) +2.5%
Buffalo: 23.2% vs New York: 20.7%
Blocked Shots (L5) +19.5% more
New York: 18.6 vs Buffalo: 15.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYI Score 2.0 2
BUF Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
47%MONEY53%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
NYI
BUF
NYI
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 2-0-1
33% 1-2
100% 2-0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
si 6 hours, 58 minutes ago
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
si 12 hours, 58 minutes ago
Islanders Lock Up Czech Blueliner Vladimir Dravecky with Three-Y…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Rangers' Shesterkin and Fox Shine in ESPN Top 100 Despite Rankin…
si 1 day, 12 hours ago
Islanders Defy Doubters with Four Stars on ESPN Top 100 List
si 1 day, 12 hours ago