Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Penn State @ Clemson PSU @ CLEM

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

6-6  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 12:00 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

CLEMSON

CLEMSONCLEM

7-5  |  Home

10
Key Game
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
@
Nolan Hauser
KEY GAME

Nolan Hauser

#81 | Place kicker
Player
Ryan Barker None-None
Nolan Hauser None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PENN STATE
0%
📊
CLEMSON
100%
PENN STATE --
CLEMSON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Penn State)
Penn StatePSU (-3.5) 0 ClemsonCLEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penn State Cover

69.1%

Clemson Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

PSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

PSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

CLEM By 1-6 points

12.9%

CLEM By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
PENN STATE
24
CLEMSON
Simulated Score
24
PENN STATE
27
CLEMSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penn State Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Clemson Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penn State (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim Clemson (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 PSU @ CLEM 22 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.2% more
Penn State: 224.0 vs Clemson: 151.8
Turnovers (L5) +30.0% more
Clemson: 0.8 vs Penn State: 0.5
First Downs (L5) +13.0% more
Clemson: 22.6 vs Penn State: 20.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 31.0 22
CLEM Score 24.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 20.0 16.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 151.8 / 224.0 43.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 409.2 / 403.2 236.0 / 397.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
CLEM
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
CLEM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
CLEM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLEM
PSU
CLEM
PSU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Football Cranks Up Volume to Simulate Penn State's White Out
headtopics 1 day, 18 hours ago
AP Voters Split on Missouri-Florida After Tigers' Blowout Win
dailygazette 3 days, 12 hours ago
Penn State's Season in Turmoil After Consecutive Losses
yahoo 3 days, 12 hours ago
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