Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UConn @ Army CONN @ ARMY

UCONN

UCONNCONN

9-3  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 2:15 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

ARMY

ARMYARMY

6-6  |  Home

41
Key Game
Saxton Suchanic
KEY GAME

Saxton Suchanic

#12 | Defensive Back
@
Dawson Jones
KEY GAME

Dawson Jones

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Saxton Suchanic None-None
Dawson Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCONN
0%
📊
ARMY
100%
UCONN --
ARMY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (UConn)
UConnCONN (-3.5) 0 ArmyARMY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UConn Cover

88.8%

Army Cover

11.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CONN -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

CONN By 1-6 points

10.7%

CONN By 7-13 points

17.5%

ARMY By 1-6 points

5.9%

ARMY By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
27
UCONN
10
ARMY
Simulated Score
13
UCONN
24
ARMY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UConn Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Army Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UConn (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
B
Sim Army (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
B
Sim u41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 CONN @ ARMY 16 - 41
Nov 19, 2022 CONN @ ARMY 17 - 34
Sep 18, 2021 CONN @ ARMY 21 - 52
Sep 12, 2015 ARMY @ CONN 17 - 22
Nov 8, 2014 CONN @ ARMY 21 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +42.7% more
UConn: 472.7 vs Army: 270.7
First Downs (L5) +34.7% more
UConn: 23.9 vs Army: 15.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
UConn: 0.5 vs Army: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +31.0% more
Army: 0.6 vs UConn: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 27.0 16
ARMY Score 10.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 23.9 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 198.1 / 154.0 368.0 / 183.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.67 / 0.11
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 270.7 / 472.7 476.0 / 267.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
ARMY Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
ARMY
1-2-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
ARMY
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARMY
CONN
ARMY
CONN
ML
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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