Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami OH @ Fresno St M-OH @ FRES

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

7-6  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 4:30 PM ET
Arizona Stadium
View Odds Details →

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

8-4  |  Home

18
Key Game
Brach Rice
KEY GAME

Brach Rice

#4 | Defensive Lineman
@
RJ Regan
KEY GAME

RJ Regan

#20 | Defensive Back
Player
Brach Rice None-None
RJ Regan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI OH
0%
📊
FRESNO ST
100%
MIAMI OH --
FRESNO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Miami OHM-OH (-3.5) 0 Fresno StFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami OH Cover

41.5%

Fresno St Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FRES +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)

M-OH By 1-6 points

17.0%

M-OH By 7-13 points

17.5%

FRES By 1-6 points

15.3%

FRES By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MIAMI (OH)
0
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
20
MIAMI (OH)
31
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Miami OH Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Fresno St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fresno St (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
B
Sim Fresno St (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u40.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim o40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 M-OH @ FRES 3 - 18
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +11.3% more
Miami (OH): 18.7 vs Fresno State: 16.6
Turnovers (L5) +86.0% more
Fresno State: 1.6 vs Miami (OH): 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.1% more
Fresno State: 198.1 vs Miami (OH): 139.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 3.0 3
FRES Score 0.0 18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 18.7 18.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 198.1 / 139.4 177.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 348.7 / 338.4 396.0 / 192.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
M-OH
FRES
M-OH
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
Missouri Freshman Lineman Johnnie DJ Jones Awaits Heart Transpla…
news29 1 day, 17 hours ago
Josh Heupel Stays Silent on Tennessee's Starting QB for Arkansas…
yahoo 3 days, 5 hours ago
Georgia Holds No. 2 AP Ranking as Showdown with Alabama Looms
yahoo 3 days, 12 hours ago
Michigan's QB Dilemma: Why Tommy Carr Deserves a Shot After Minn…
yahoo 4 days, 23 hours ago