Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia @ Missouri UVA @ MIZ

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

10-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 7:30 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

8-4  |  Home

7
Key Game
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
@
Oliver Robbins
KEY GAME

Oliver Robbins

#48 | Place kicker
Player
Will Bettridge None-None
Oliver Robbins None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA
0%
📊
MISSOURI
100%
VIRGINIA --
MISSOURI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Virginia)
VirginiaUVA (-3.5) 0 MissouriMIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Cover

98.9%

Missouri Cover

1.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UVA -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

UVA By 1-6 points

2.2%

UVA By 7-13 points

5.9%

MIZ By 1-6 points

0.7%

MIZ By 7-13 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
35
VIRGINIA
3
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
24
VIRGINIA
31
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Virginia Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Missouri Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Virginia (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
B
Sim Missouri (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
B
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 UVA @ MIZ 13 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Virginia: 0.5 vs Missouri: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +8.0% more
Virginia: 385.7 vs Missouri: 354.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.0% more
Missouri: 227.7 vs Virginia: 165.0
Turnovers (L5) +12.5% more
Missouri: 1.5 vs Virginia: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 35.0 13
MIZ Score 3.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 22.4 13.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 227.7 / 165.0 159.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.64
Total Yards 354.7 / 385.7 260.0 / 308.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIZ
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
UVA
MIZ
UVA
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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