Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gaels @ Catamounts IONA @ UVM

IONA

GAELSIONA

8-4  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 2:00 PM ET
Patrick Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

VERMONT

CATAMOUNTSUVM

8-5  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
📊
CATAMOUNTS
0%
GAELS --
CATAMOUNTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
VERMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Vermont)
GaelsIONA (-3.5) 0 CatamountsUVM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gaels Cover

38.2%

Catamounts Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVM -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVM)

IONA By 1-7 points

21.6%

IONA By 8-14 points

10.7%

UVM By 1-7 points

27.2%

UVM By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
69
IONA
72
VERMONT
Simulated Score
69
IONA
74
VERMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Catamounts Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Catamounts Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Catamounts (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Catamounts (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 IONA @ UVM 83 - 78
Nov 15, 2024 UVM @ IONA 59 - 62
Nov 18, 2022 UVM @ IONA 50 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +56.3% more
Vermont: 2.7 vs Iona: 1.7
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Vermont: 46.7% vs Iona: 41.7%
Steals (L5) +43.3% more
Iona: 9.3 vs Vermont: 5.3
Turnovers (L5) +18.9% more
Iona: 11.0 vs Vermont: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IONA Score 69.0 83
UVM Score 72.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.1 / 33.2 29.0 / 35.0
Assists 11.9 / 12.9 9.0 / 5.0
Blocks 2.7 / 1.7 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 41.7 45.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 77.2 64.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 32.9 32.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.3 / 9.3 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 11.0 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IONA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
UVM Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IONA Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
UVM
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.6
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVM
IONA
UVM
IONA
ML
56% 19-15
41% 13-19
65% 22-12
62% 20-12
ATS
62% 21-13
53% 17-15
65% 22-12
62% 20-12
TTL
47% 16-18
66% 21-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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