BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
16-11 | Road
112
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
17-11 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
CELTICS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
266.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-7 points
25.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
26.2%
TOR By 1-7 points
13.7%
TOR By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
137
BOSTON
Toronto
129
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Boston
106
BOSTON
Toronto
112
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Celtics (-2)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o221.0
Loss
Proj Total: 266.0
D
Sim
u221.0
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
TOR @ BOS
101 - 115
Jan 9, 2026
TOR @ BOS
117 - 125
Dec 20, 2025
BOS @ TOR
112 - 96
Dec 7, 2025
BOS @ TOR
121 - 113
Oct 15, 2025
TOR @ BOS
108 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.3% more
Boston: 5.9
vs
Toronto: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.0%
Boston: 79.8%
vs
Toronto: 69.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Boston: 39.2%
vs
Toronto: 36.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Boston: 49.3%
vs
Toronto: 47.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
137.0
112
TOR Score
129.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 39.2
34.0 / 31.0
Assists
29.6 / 22.4
30.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.1 / 5.9
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 49.3
41.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
69.8 / 79.8
73.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 41.6
37.0 / 55.0
Steals
8.8 / 7.9
2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
17.1 / 14.0
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
55%
57-47
57%
61-46
55%
48-39
53%
47-41
ATS
61%
62-40-2
59%
61-43-3
55%
48-39
53%
47-41
TTL
60%
62-42
56%
60-47
100%
87-0
100%
88-0
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