Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ 76ers DAL @ PHI

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

11-17  |  Road

114
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

15-11  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
76ERS
100%
MAVERICKS --
76ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
190.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 76ersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

91.9%

76ers Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

16.9%

DAL By 8-14 points

26.2%

PHI By 1-7 points

5.8%

PHI By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
102
DALLAS
88
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
112
DALLAS
118
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 76ers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim 76ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u225.5 Loss
Proj Total: 190.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 1, 2026 PHI @ DAL 123 - 108
Dec 20, 2025 DAL @ PHI 114 - 121
Mar 16, 2025 PHI @ DAL 130 - 125
Feb 4, 2025 DAL @ PHI 116 - 118
Mar 3, 2024 PHI @ DAL 120 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.0% more
Dallas: 8.8 vs Philadelphia: 6.8
Turnovers (L5) +19.2% more
Dallas: 14.8 vs Philadelphia: 11.9
Assists (L5) +9.9% more
Dallas: 25.3 vs Philadelphia: 22.8
Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Dallas: 48.7% vs Philadelphia: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 102.0 114
PHI Score 88.0 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 30.7 30.0 / 17.0
Assists 22.8 / 25.3 27.0 / 24.0
Blocks 6.8 / 8.8 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 48.7 43.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 85.3 / 78.2 75.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 45.6 / 46.2 47.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.1 / 6.5 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 14.8 10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DAL
PHI
DAL
ML
63% 69-40
62% 63-39
48% 45-48
54% 44-37
ATS
65% 71-38
67% 68-34
48% 45-48
54% 44-37
TTL
55% 60-49
59% 60-41-1
100% 93-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 0 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 5 hours, 34 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 5 hours, 53 minutes ago
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up
si 12 hours, 5 minutes ago
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
cbssports 23 hours, 35 minutes ago