Home / NBA Projections NBA / Wizards @ Grizzlies WSH @ MEM

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

4-21  |  Road

130
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

13-14  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
WIZARDS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
203.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Washington)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

99.7%

Grizzlies Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WSH -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-7 points

2.2%

WSH By 8-14 points

8.0%

MEM By 1-7 points

0.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
115
WASHINGTON
88
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
112
WASHINGTON
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wizards Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wizards (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.0 Loss
Proj Total: 203.0
D
Sim u233.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 MEM @ WSH 112 - 116
Dec 20, 2025 WSH @ MEM 130 - 122
Dec 8, 2024 MEM @ WSH 140 - 112
Nov 8, 2024 WSH @ MEM 104 - 128
Mar 12, 2024 WSH @ MEM 97 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.2% more
Memphis: 9.2 vs Washington: 7.2
Free Throw % (L5) +9.9%
Memphis: 80.6% vs Washington: 70.7%
Assists (L5) +9.4% more
Memphis: 28.2 vs Washington: 25.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Memphis: 36.7% vs Washington: 32.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 115.0 130
MEM Score 88.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 32.5 36.0 / 39.0
Assists 28.2 / 25.7 31.0 / 32.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.9 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 44.6 45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 80.6 / 70.7 73.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 46.8 / 46.0 48.0 / 54.0
Steals 9.2 / 7.2 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 14.5 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
WSH
MEM
WSH
ML
57% 59-44
70% 112-49
50% 41-41
47% 39-44
ATS
63% 65-38
69% 111-49-1
50% 41-41
47% 39-44
TTL
70% 71-31-1
74% 119-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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