SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
SPARTANSUPST
8-6 | Road
65
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
PENGUINSYSU
7-5 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
PENGUINS
100%
SPARTANS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (South Carolina Upstate)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UPST -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UPST)
UPST By 1-7 points
24.3%
UPST By 8-14 points
26.8%
YSU By 1-7 points
12.2%
YSU By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
South Carolina Upstate
78
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Youngstown State
69
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Simulated Score
South Carolina Upstate
70
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Youngstown State
78
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spartans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spartans (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 20, 2025
UPST @ YSU
65 - 74
Dec 21, 2024
YSU @ UPST
72 - 64
Nov 23, 2019
YSU @ UPST
66 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+13.3% more
South Carolina Upstate: 17.3
vs
Youngstown State: 15.0
Rebounding (L5)
+9.0% more
South Carolina Upstate: 38.6
vs
Youngstown State: 35.1
Turnovers (L5)
+52.4% more
Youngstown State: 15.9
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 10.4
Blocks (L5)
+14.8% more
Youngstown State: 3.9
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UPST Score
78.0
65
YSU Score
69.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 37.1
35.0 / 27.0
Assists
15.0 / 17.3
14.0 / 6.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.4
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
54.0 / 48.8
43.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
70.8 / 67.8
69.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
35.1 / 38.6
37.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.8 / 6.6
11.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 10.4
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UPST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
YSU
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UPST
Advantage
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
YSU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -3.5
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
YSU
UPST
YSU
UPST
ML
57%
17-13
61%
19-12
67%
20-10
83%
25-5
ATS
47%
14-16
61%
19-12
67%
20-10
83%
25-5
TTL
60%
18-12
52%
16-15
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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