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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

5-6  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 9:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

9-2  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
LOBOS
0%
SPARTANS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (New Mexico)
SpartansSJSU (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

0.3%

Lobos Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

SJSU By 1-7 points

0.3%

SJSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNM By 1-7 points

2.2%

UNM By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
59
SAN JOSÉ STATE
86
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
67
SAN JOSÉ STATE
78
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lobos (-15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 SJSU @ UNM 77 - 93
Jan 31, 2026 UNM @ SJSU 90 - 80
Dec 20, 2025 SJSU @ UNM 65 - 88
Mar 13, 2025 SJSU @ UNM 52 - 63
Jan 14, 2025 UNM @ SJSU 70 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +62.7% more
New Mexico: 3.7 vs San José State: 2.3
Rebounding (L5) +33.3% more
New Mexico: 39.0 vs San José State: 29.3
Assists (L5) +25.8% more
New Mexico: 14.8 vs San José State: 11.8
Free Throw % (L5) +5.3%
New Mexico: 83.6% vs San José State: 78.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 59.0 65
UNM Score 86.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 37.6 37.0 / 41.0
Assists 14.8 / 11.8 18.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.7 / 2.3 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 47.2 57.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 83.6 / 78.3 83.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 29.3 30.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.7 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 11.6 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
SJSU
UNM
SJSU
ML
57% 21-16
73% 24-9
74% 25-9
62% 20-12
ATS
57% 21-16
73% 24-9
74% 25-9
62% 20-12
TTL
41% 15-22
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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