Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Coyotes @ Wildcats SDAK @ KSU

SOUTH DAKOTA

COYOTESSDAK

7-6  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 12:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

7-4  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
COYOTES
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
COYOTES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
105.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Kansas State)
CoyotesSDAK (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Coyotes Cover

0.0%

Wildcats Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KSU -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

SDAK By 1-7 points

0.0%

SDAK By 8-14 points

0.0%

KSU By 1-7 points

0.5%

KSU By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
36
SOUTH DAKOTA
69
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
62
SOUTH DAKOTA
78
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (-22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u172.5 Loss
Proj Total: 105.0
D
Sim u172.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 SDAK @ KSU 76 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +100.6% more
Kansas State: 18.0 vs South Dakota: 9.0
Blocks (L5) +74.2% more
Kansas State: 4.5 vs South Dakota: 2.6
Rebounding (L5) +13.2% more
Kansas State: 40.5 vs South Dakota: 35.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
Kansas State: 39.3% vs South Dakota: 31.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDAK Score 36.0 76
KSU Score 69.0 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 31.9 50.0 / 47.0
Assists 18.0 / 9.0 23.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.5 / 2.6 9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 46.9 62.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 70.7 75.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 40.5 / 35.8 44.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.0 / 6.6 10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 11.6 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDAK Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDAK Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: -1.1
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
SDAK
KSU
SDAK
ML
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
69% 22-10
63% 19-11
ATS
62% 20-12
70% 21-9
69% 22-10
63% 19-11
TTL
47% 15-17
67% 20-10
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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