LIBERTY
FLAMESLIB
7-3 | Road
64
DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
9-3 | Home
61
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
0%
FLYERS
100%
FLAMES
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Liberty)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIB -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)
LIB By 1-7 points
0.1%
LIB By 8-14 points
0.8%
DAY By 1-7 points
0.0%
DAY By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Liberty
112
LIBERTY
Dayton
74
DAYTON
Simulated Score
Liberty
71
LIBERTY
Dayton
76
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Flames
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Flames (-9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 20, 2025
LIB @ DAY
64 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+19.5% more
Liberty: 19.1
vs
Dayton: 15.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
Liberty: 38.0%
vs
Dayton: 31.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Liberty: 52.0%
vs
Dayton: 48.0%
Blocks (L5)
+45.6% more
Dayton: 5.5
vs
Liberty: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LIB Score
112.0
64
DAY Score
74.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.2 / 38.0
33.0 / 44.0
Assists
15.4 / 19.1
11.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.5 / 3.8
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 52.0
38.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
69.8 / 55.8
80.0 / 44.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 31.0
37.0 / 28.0
Steals
10.7 / 7.5
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 10.1
10.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
DAY
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
DAY
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +4.2
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
LIB
DAY
LIB
ML
65%
24-13
50%
17-17
64%
23-13
53%
18-16
ATS
68%
25-12
62%
21-13
64%
23-13
53%
18-16
TTL
57%
21-16
41%
14-20
100%
36-0
100%
34-0
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