Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Broncos BUF @ WMU

BUFFALO

BULLSBUF

9-2  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 1:00 PM ET
University Arena (MI)
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

BRONCOSWMU

5-6  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
BULLS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Western Michigan)
BullsBUF (-3.5) 0 BroncosWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

8.1%

Broncos Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WMU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

BUF By 1-7 points

5.8%

BUF By 8-14 points

1.4%

WMU By 1-7 points

16.9%

WMU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
57
BUFFALO
71
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
69
BUFFALO
73
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 BUF @ WMU 88 - 71
Feb 18, 2025 WMU @ BUF 97 - 64
Jan 18, 2025 BUF @ WMU 85 - 76
Feb 24, 2024 BUF @ WMU 72 - 91
Jan 6, 2024 WMU @ BUF 82 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +22.2% more
Western Michigan: 2.4 vs Buffalo: 2.0
Assists (L5) +18.2% more
Western Michigan: 13.6 vs Buffalo: 11.5
Turnovers (L5) +17.7% more
Western Michigan: 14.0 vs Buffalo: 11.9
Rebounding (L5) +13.3% more
Western Michigan: 36.2 vs Buffalo: 32.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 57.0 88
WMU Score 71.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 36.2 30.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.6 / 11.5 18.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.0 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 46.4 39.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 77.7 75.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 36.2 / 32.0 35.0 / 39.0
Steals 3.6 / 7.2 2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 11.9 7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
WMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
WMU
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.6
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
BUF
WMU
BUF
ML
60% 18-12
45% 14-17
70% 21-9
45% 14-17
ATS
67% 20-10
55% 17-14
70% 21-9
45% 14-17
TTL
57% 17-13
48% 15-16
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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