GEORGIA STATE
PANTHERSGAST
2-10 | Road
70
APP STATE
MOUNTAINEERSAPP
8-5 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
PANTHERS
--
MOUNTAINEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-51.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +51.0 points (Georgia State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GAST -51.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)
GAST By 1-7 points
0.0%
GAST By 8-14 points
0.0%
APP By 1-7 points
0.0%
APP By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Georgia State
89
GEORGIA STATE
App State
38
APP STATE
Simulated Score
Georgia State
73
GEORGIA STATE
App State
78
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mountaineers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -51.0
D
Sim
Mountaineers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 8, 2026
APP @ GAST
52 - 50
Dec 20, 2025
GAST @ APP
70 - 63
Feb 15, 2025
APP @ GAST
65 - 70
Feb 1, 2025
GAST @ APP
76 - 80
Feb 1, 2024
APP @ GAST
81 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.9% more
Georgia State: 5.5
vs
App State: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.5%
Georgia State: 75.4%
vs
App State: 63.9%
Blocks (L5)
+91.8% more
App State: 4.5
vs
Georgia State: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+26.6% more
App State: 13.5
vs
Georgia State: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GAST Score
89.0
70
APP Score
38.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 30.3
32.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.5 / 10.7
11.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.5 / 2.3
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 36.8
39.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
63.9 / 75.4
58.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
44.4 / 35.8
30.0 / 38.0
Steals
4.2 / 5.5
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 11.9
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
APP
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
APP
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -2.4
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
GAST
APP
GAST
ML
62%
20-12
56%
18-14
59%
19-13
71%
22-9
ATS
59%
19-13
59%
19-13
59%
19-13
71%
22-9
TTL
69%
22-10
59%
19-13
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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