Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / RedHawks @ Cardinals M-OH @ BALL

MIAMI (OH)

REDHAWKSM-OH

11-0  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 2:00 PM ET
Worthen Arena
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

3-8  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
REDHAWKS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ball State)
RedHawksM-OH (-3.5) 0 CardinalsBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

RedHawks Cover

46.0%

Cardinals Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BALL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

M-OH By 1-7 points

24.3%

M-OH By 8-14 points

13.7%

BALL By 1-7 points

26.2%

BALL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
MIAMI (OH)
68
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
69
MIAMI (OH)
72
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 M-OH @ BALL 86 - 77
Mar 7, 2025 BALL @ M-OH 66 - 79
Jan 7, 2025 M-OH @ BALL 80 - 72
Feb 17, 2024 BALL @ M-OH 59 - 80
Jan 20, 2024 M-OH @ BALL 87 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +31.4% more
Ball State: 3.4 vs Miami (OH): 2.6
Turnovers (L5) +17.2% more
Ball State: 11.7 vs Miami (OH): 10.0
Free Throw % (L5) +8.3%
Ball State: 69.9% vs Miami (OH): 61.7%
Assists (L5) +29.1% more
Miami (OH): 16.8 vs Ball State: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 67.0 86
BALL Score 68.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 22.5 / 43.3 33.0 / 54.0
Assists 11.9 / 16.8 16.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.6 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.0 / 53.0 49.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 61.7 78.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 34.0 24.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.0 8.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 10.0 7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH Advantage
32-2-0 (94.1%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: +3.2
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: +3.2
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +5.6
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
M-OH
BALL
M-OH
ML
43% 13-17
45% 15-18
62% 18-11
41% 13-19
ATS
67% 20-10
61% 20-13
62% 18-11
41% 13-19
TTL
50% 15-15
61% 20-13
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 0 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 0 minutes ago
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 6 hours, 1 minute ago
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 6 hours, 4 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 18 hours, 44 minutes ago