COLORADO STATE
RAMSCSU
9-2 | Road
58
UTAH STATE
AGGIESUSU
9-1 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
AGGIES
100%
RAMS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Colorado State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)
CSU By 1-7 points
9.3%
CSU By 8-14 points
20.1%
USU By 1-7 points
2.2%
USU By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado State
86
COLORADO STATE
Utah State
67
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
Colorado State
72
COLORADO STATE
Utah State
75
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rams
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rams (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
USU @ CSU
65 - 61
Dec 20, 2025
CSU @ USU
58 - 100
Mar 14, 2025
USU @ CSU
72 - 83
Mar 1, 2025
USU @ CSU
66 - 93
Feb 11, 2025
CSU @ USU
85 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+10.8% more
Colorado State: 18.9
vs
Utah State: 16.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.5%
Colorado State: 43.5%
vs
Utah State: 34.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
Colorado State: 58.0%
vs
Utah State: 49.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.3%
Colorado State: 79.1%
vs
Utah State: 76.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSU Score
86.0
58
USU Score
67.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 43.5
57.0 / 30.0
Assists
16.9 / 18.9
22.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.1 / 1.1
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 58.0
64.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 79.1
58.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 33.2
40.0 / 20.0
Steals
9.9 / 8.3
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 10.8
10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
USU
Advantage
29-7-0
(80.6%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
USU
16-19-0
(45.7%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.7
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
CSU
USU
CSU
ML
49%
17-18
56%
19-15
66%
21-11
65%
20-11
ATS
74%
26-9
62%
21-13
67%
22-11
65%
20-11
TTL
51%
18-17
56%
19-15
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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