MARSHALL
THUNDERING HERDMRSH
7-4 | Road
63
TROY
TROJANSTROY
7-5 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERING HERD
100%
TROJANS
0%
THUNDERING HERD
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TROY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
MRSH By 1-7 points
24.3%
MRSH By 8-14 points
13.7%
TROY By 1-7 points
26.2%
TROY By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Marshall
67
MARSHALL
Troy
68
TROY
Simulated Score
Marshall
69
MARSHALL
Troy
74
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 20, 2025
MRSH @ TROY
63 - 70
Jan 4, 2025
TROY @ MRSH
58 - 57
Feb 7, 2024
MRSH @ TROY
66 - 82
Feb 18, 2023
TROY @ MRSH
78 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+122.3% more
Troy: 8.6
vs
Marshall: 3.9
Assists (L5)
+24.8% more
Troy: 18.1
vs
Marshall: 14.5
Turnovers (L5)
+20.4% more
Troy: 13.4
vs
Marshall: 11.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Troy: 35.7%
vs
Marshall: 32.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score
67.0
63
TROY Score
68.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 32.0
32.0 / 24.0
Assists
18.1 / 14.5
11.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.4 / 8.2
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 45.9
35.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
71.9 / 78.1
83.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
41.8 / 40.0
42.0 / 45.0
Steals
8.6 / 3.9
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 11.1
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.8
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
10-20-1
(33.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.8
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
MRSH
TROY
MRSH
ML
59%
20-14
70%
21-9
61%
20-13
62%
18-11
ATS
65%
22-12
70%
21-9
61%
20-13
62%
18-11
TTL
56%
19-15
50%
15-15
100%
33-0
100%
29-0
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