Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Bobcats USA @ TXST

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

9-3  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 3:30 PM ET
Strahan Arena at the University Events Center
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

BOBCATSTXST

7-6  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
BOBCATS
0%
JAGUARS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas State)
JaguarsUSA (-3.5) 0 BobcatsTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

46.0%

Bobcats Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

USA By 1-7 points

24.3%

USA By 8-14 points

13.7%

TXST By 1-7 points

26.2%

TXST By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
SOUTH ALABAMA
68
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH ALABAMA
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bobcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 TXST @ USA 90 - 82
Dec 20, 2025 USA @ TXST 65 - 67
Feb 22, 2025 USA @ TXST 92 - 93
Feb 15, 2025 TXST @ USA 65 - 70
Feb 15, 2024 TXST @ USA 55 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.2% more
Texas State: 3.9 vs South Alabama: 2.8
Assists (L5) +23.1% more
Texas State: 14.2 vs South Alabama: 11.5
Turnovers (L5) +11.2% more
Texas State: 13.7 vs South Alabama: 12.3
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
Texas State: 76.3% vs South Alabama: 71.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 67.0 65
TXST Score 68.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 30.6 22.0 / 20.0
Assists 14.2 / 11.5 11.0 / 3.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.8 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 46.6 35.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 71.7 91.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 33.5 44.0 / 28.0
Steals 11.1 / 10.3 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 12.3 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
TXST
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
TXST
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
USA
TXST
USA
ML
42% 13-18
47% 15-17
83% 25-5
57% 17-13
ATS
48% 15-16
53% 17-15
84% 26-5
57% 17-13
TTL
65% 20-11
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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