BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
8-3 | Road
68
OHIO
BOBCATSOHIO
5-6 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
BOBCATS
100%
FALCONS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BGSU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
BGSU By 1-7 points
4.0%
BGSU By 8-14 points
12.2%
OHIO By 1-7 points
0.6%
OHIO By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Bowling Green
89
BOWLING GREEN
Ohio
65
OHIO
Simulated Score
Bowling Green
70
BOWLING GREEN
Ohio
75
OHIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Falcons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Falcons (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 20, 2025
BGSU @ OHIO
68 - 58
Feb 11, 2025
OHIO @ BGSU
86 - 81
Mar 1, 2024
BGSU @ OHIO
59 - 66
Jan 9, 2024
OHIO @ BGSU
78 - 83
Mar 3, 2023
BGSU @ OHIO
58 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+35.6% more
Bowling Green: 11.5
vs
Ohio: 7.4
Blocks (L5)
+24.1% more
Bowling Green: 6.4
vs
Ohio: 4.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Bowling Green: 33.9%
vs
Ohio: 29.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.1%
Bowling Green: 74.2%
vs
Ohio: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score
89.0
68
OHIO Score
65.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.2 / 33.9
18.0 / 33.0
Assists
18.1 / 18.9
6.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.9 / 6.4
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 52.4
37.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 74.2
63.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 37.9
30.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.4 / 11.5
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 10.5
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
OHIO
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
OHIO
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
OHIO
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
BGSU
OHIO
BGSU
ML
65%
20-11
66%
21-11
63%
19-11
56%
18-14
ATS
68%
21-10
72%
23-9
63%
19-11
56%
18-14
TTL
61%
19-12
53%
17-15
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
Princeton Basketball Standout A'mire Gill Pledges to Miami (Ohio…
Iowa Men's Basketball Unveils Big Ten Slate: Road Opener at Purd…
Ohio State's NBA Pipeline: Three Buckeyes Prospects to Watch in …
Arch Manning's Redemption: Texas Stuns Ohio State with Historic …